•   Monitoring
•   Forecasting
•   Action & Mitigation
•   ICT & Organisation

QUANTIFICATION AND REDUCTION OF UNCERTAINTY

Flood protection involves the use of numerous different forecasting models for, among other things, the weather, water levels and dike strength. All of these models include a certain uncertainty margin. At present, these uncertainties are still ignored or 'added up'. The aim of this project is to quantify uncertainties, identify them and – where possible – to reduce them.

This requires an approach that addresses the entire chain of events: a framework that looks at all the uncertainties as a single whole. The central issue requiring an answer is: how can this chain approach be integrated effectively in operational flood forecasting?
The framework provides a practical structure for using the results and methods from the various FC2015 sub-projects in the operational prediction of flood risks.

Ultimately, the aim is to make predictions with a specific probability distribution. This quantification of the uncertainty will give decision-makers a better basis for their decisions. For example, they will be able to make better decisions than at present about whether or not to initiate an evacuation.

Sub-projects:

• Extension & Testing of the Framework for the Quantification and Reduction of Uncertainties
• Uncertainties in flood scenarios
• Real-time data assimilation in spatially distributed hydrological models
• Post-processing of load forecasts
• Operational wave predictions
• Roughness formulation and roughness input for river foreland with vegetation